Bold Lite

Maybe President Obama's jobs plan will succeed in making congressional Republicans look bad before the 2012 election, especially if they reject it and demonize it as another socialist plot.

But even in the unlikely event that the congressional Republicans pass it whole, would the president's $440 billion grab bag offer significant solutions to Main Street’s most pressing problems – reducing the unemployment rate and halting the foreclosure crisis?

Probably not.

It’s true that the president and his administration did not dig the deep economic hole the country is in. And the president deserves some credit for stepping out of Washington’s deficit obsession bubble just long enough to recognize that nothing the government has done so far has been enough to lift those outside Wall Street out of that hole – the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.

But throughout his administration, and again last night, he has not offered big enough shovels, to dig us out of it.

As Paul Krugman [who labels the plan “a lot better than nothing”] points out, the collapse of the housing bubble blew a  $1 trillion a year hole in the economy, a hole that last night’s jobs plan won’t come close to filling.

But a comparison of the jobs plan’s $440 billion price tag with the unsuccessful $16 trillion bank bailout suggests its relative timidity. Remember that the federal government handed over that money to the bankers with no strings attached and no questions asked.

While the administration likes to tout the bank bailout’s success by bragging that most of the money has been repaid, by its most important measure – ensuring that the banking system helped restore the Main Street economy - it remains a costly failure.

Still you have to at least acknowledge that the bank bailout was a bold scheme. The same can’t be said for the American Jobs Act, which as the president stressed, was a collection of non-controversial proposals that even corporate Republicans have endorsed in the past.

Call it Obama’s “bold lite.”

Yes, it was bolder than what the president has suggested since the original $700 billion stimulus. It includes $240 billion of tax cuts and about $200 billion in infrastructure spending and aid to local governments, along with regulatory review, a vague housing scheme, plus a significant new round of budget cuts to pay for it, including unspecified threats to Medicare.

According to an estimate by Economic Policy Institute, the new plan, if passed whole, would create 2.6 million new jobs over the next several years and prevent the loss of another 1.6 million jobs.

That’s not chopped liver – but the country is still staggering under the weight of persistent 9 percent unemployment, with 14 million Americans unemployed, another 8.8 million working part-time but seeking fulltime work, and another 2.6 million who don’t show up in unemployment numbers because they’ve given up looking for work. In addition, we face a continuing foreclosure crisis and the threat of future budget cuts.

While I hope that the congressional Republicans don’t just decide to block the proposal, experience suggests that they are stuck on that strategy as a way to undermine the president. Will “a lot better than nothing” be good enough to help millions of Americans for whom the recovery has only been a mirage? Or is the president setting himself up, and the rest of us, for another round of dashed hopes and failure?

Uncategorized - 09/10/2011

D.C. Disconnect: It's Just a JOBS Recession

According to one of the pontificators on NPR’s Marketplace, the economy is actually fine, we’re just in a “jobs recession.”

Now I feel better.

This is what passes for insightful commentary among the media elite on the day that unemployment shot back up to 9.2 percent.

“If you’re rich, it’s great,” says Felix Salmon, Reuters columnist. “But if you’re a working person it’s terrible.”
As for President Obama, he reacted to the terrible jobs report by saying: “We still have a long way to go.”

Except he shows no inclination to go there.

He’s wrapped up in the Republican austerity agenda so tight he can’t find his way to suggest anything to reduce unemployment.

He meekly suggested that reducing the deficit would help create jobs, though most economists acknowledge such cuts will hurt the economy – and the unemployed.

We all know that President Obama needs to raise $1 billion for his presidential campaign, and Republicans are falling over themselves to kill financial reform in their efforts to woo Wall Street. You have to admire the Republicans' focus: they don't give a damn about the economy, they only care about getting rid of Obama.

But both Obama and the Republicans they must be counting on only the rich voting.

The day before the jobs report, Obama’s top political adviser told Bloomberg News that the unemployment rate wouldn’t hurt Obama’s reelection chances. Obama adviser David Plouffe also asserted that people thought that the economy was getting better, based on anecdotal evidence.

Here’s what Plouffe had to say:

“You see, people’s — people’s attitude towards their own personal financial situation has actually improved over time. You know, they’re still concerned about the long-term economic future of the country, but it’s things like “My sister was unemployed for six months and was living in my basement and now she has a job.

There’s a — a “help wanted” sign. You know, the local diner was a little busier this week. Home Depot was a little busier. These are the ways people talk about the economy.”

Either Plouffe is drinking his own Kool-Aid or thinks he can play off the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression as a minor dip.

As emptywheel points out on Firedoglake, the measures of consumer confidence don’t agree with Plouffe’s blithe assessment. As emptywheel suggests, if they expect voters to keep them in their jobs, Plouffe, Obama and the rest of the administration need to get out of their bubble and start listening “to the pain of real people.”

Martin Berg

 

Around the Web / Martin Column / Uncategorized - 07/08/2011

In this “Bust Bowl,” It’s Every Person for Themselves

During the 1930s, drought and dust storms combined to devastate farms in the heartland of the United States, already decimated by the Great Depression. One quarter of the population of the “Dust Bowl” lost their farms and ranches when the banks foreclosed on them. Millions left the Great Plains for California or elsewhere.

Today, the entire nation is trapped in a “Bust Bowl,” laid low from coast to coast by the collapse of an economy based largely on finance and speculation. The “official” unemployment rate, which has been above 9.5% for the last fourteen months, understates the true devastation wrought by the Wall Street debacle. Vast numbers of our citizens have descended into poverty: 42 million Americans – one in seven – are considered poor.  Just an hour or two outside LA, 15 to 20% of residents in towns like Bakersfield and Riverside are below the poverty line.

Back in the Thirties, farmers joined together to protect each other against foreclosures: trying to block authorities from seizing the farms, moving furniture back into the homes of the evicted, and refusing to bid on properties that were foreclosed. But there’s little sympathy for our neighbors evident these days.

To the contrary, speculation has ingrained itself so deeply in the American psyche that people view foreclosures as an opportunity to snatch up a home at distressed prices. And now that some banks are pulling homes off the market because they can’t prove they hold the mortgages, as my colleague Martin Berg has described, would-be purchasers are unhappy. The New York Times quoted a Florida mother who was supposed to move into a foreclosed “three bedroom steal” when Fannie Mae took the house off the market. “Now I’m sharing a room with my son,” she complained. “What the hell is up with that?”

It’s hard to feel sorry for someone who is trying to reap some kind of a windfall from someone else’s tragedy.

I know, everyone’s just trying to get by. The Times noted that one man who had lost his own home to foreclosure after falling behind on his payments had made a successful bid on another foreclosed home – his “dream house” – only to have the deal frozen by the bank.

But is the solution to beggar thy neighbor?

Consider the debt collector profiled in the New Yorker this week. A former drug dealer who did some time, “Jimmy” now runs a small operation in Buffalo, New York. He buys bad debts from businesses like banks and credit card companies for a few cents on the dollar, and then does what he can to collect from the people who owe the money. Anything he can get, he keeps. With so many Americans out of work and deeply in debt, the collection business is booming these days. Buffalo’s home to quite a few such firms these days, because, as Jimmy explains, “Buffalo is broke!” Jimmy’s got five kids and he’s trying to make a living and meet the payroll for his staff, whose job is to nag and cajole people into paying something on what they owe. Plus he’s up against some bigger firms that are willing to break the law in order to collect. But it’s not a pretty picture, especially because it soon becomes clear that Jimmy’s company is in trouble, and he may soon find himself among the debtors of Buffalo.

The average American is not going to be able to leverage himself out of this economic nightmare.

In the Thirties, the federal government ultimately came to the rescue: prodded by Roosevelt, Congress authorized the courts to reduce a farm mortgage to its diminished market value, and to suspend a farm foreclosure for three years. (A conservative US Supreme Court initially struck the law down as an improper intrusion of the government in the banking business, but it was later upheld.) Farmers were also allowed to borrow money through the federal government to pay off their old mortgages. This was the New Deal.

This time around, Wall Street firms have been given access to trillions of dollars of federal money at rates approaching zero interest, but with no requirement that they lend this taxpayer money back to taxpayers at all, much less at fair interest rates. Thus the banks, credit card companies and investment firms are back in business and in fact, most are rolling in dough. The rest of us have to pay exorbitant interest to borrow our money, if it is offered at all. And at the behest of Wall Street, the US Senate rejected a proposal to allow federal bankruptcy courts to modify mortgages so people could stay in their homes. A few days ago, the Obama administration rejected a nationwide moratorium on foreclosures. "While we understand the eagerness to make sure that no American is foreclosed upon in error, we must be careful not to over-reach and apply a remedy that will make the underlying problem of foreclosures worse," according to the Federal Housing Administration.

I'd call this a "Raw Deal."

Foreclosures / Harvey Column / Outrage - 10/10/2010

The Great Tsunami of 2010

A tsunami – a tidal wave of devastating proportions –begins with a catastrophic event that is often thousands of miles distant. While attention is rooted on the event itself – say, an earthquake – the wave is submerged in the deep ocean so that the surface is barely disturbed… until the tsunami reaches shallower coastal waters. As the ocean bottom rises, the wave becomes visible, then towering, until it comes ashore and obliterates everything in its path.

I believe a political tsunami of vast proportions is heading towards Washington, D.C. You wouldn’t know it from its inhabitants, who seem to be unaware of what is coming their way. But unless they wake up and take action to redirect the energy of the approaching wave, we’re going to see a cataclysmic change in Washington next year.

Harvey Column - 10/27/2009